DAT spot rates up to 35% above last year as truck posts drop and trucking jobs stay flat

DAT's van and reefer rates now beat every year in its nine-year record except 2021, Land Line reported. Load posts on DAT One are 22% to 47% above a year ago. The Bureau of Labor Statistics counted 1,471,300 truck transportation jobs in October, unchanged from September and 0.1% below October 2025, according to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics.

The pressure is on the supply side. ACT Research's For-Hire Trucking Index shows capacity driving rates this year, and Land Line points to tougher policing of the non-domiciled CDL and English proficiency rules, plus record diesel prices. Diesel jumped after the conflict in Iran and ate into the rate gains of smaller carriers. David Spencer of Arrive Logistics said truckload rates have risen only as far as needed to hold capacity in place.

The payroll count leaves out owner-operators, so a small carrier closing while its drivers join a bigger fleet can look like no change at all. Avery Vise of FTR said that if fuel costs push many small carriers out, drivers moving to larger fleets could ease some of the capacity squeeze.

Fleets are not buying either. Preliminary North American Class 8 net orders were 13,500 in October, 45% fewer than in October 2025, ACT Research said, citing unresolved EPA 2027 engine rules and cost pressure. EPA proposed changes in July and has not finalized them. Orders for medium-duty Classes 5 to 7 rose 14% to 18,000. ACT plans to publish final October numbers in mid-November.