EIA raises 2027 diesel price forecast to $5.03 a gallon
The U.S. Energy Information Administration now expects retail diesel to average $5.03 a gallon in 2027, up 12% from the $4.49 it forecast in October, according to its Short-Term Energy Outlook released Nov. 10. The agency assumes tight global fuel supplies will last through the end of 2027.
EIA's 2027 figure is still below this year's: the agency puts the 2026 average at $5.25 a gallon, a little above its October estimate of $5.19. What changed is how fast relief arrives. EIA now assumes world markets for refined products will stay short of supply through the end of 2027, which it says will keep refiners' margins wide and U.S. refineries running at high rates.
EIA expects Brent crude to stay near $100 a barrel for the rest of 2026 and slide to an average of $77 in the fourth quarter of 2027 as depleted stocks rebuild. Transport Topics, citing Bloomberg, put the agency's Brent forecast at $104 for November, $99 for December and $86 for 2027 as a whole, and reported that EIA tied the tight supply to the U.S.-Iran conflict and Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries. U.S. commercial crude stocks stood at 410 million barrels when October ended, the smallest for that point in the year since 2014, EIA said.
Prices at the pump are already easing. Patrick De Haan of GasBuddy put the national diesel average at $6.157 a gallon on the morning of Nov. 10 and said it was dropping 1 to 2 cents a day, Transport Topics reported. EIA finished the forecast Nov. 5, so later market moves are not in it. The next outlook comes out Dec. 8.
Why it matters: A $5.03 average would still leave diesel far above 2025 prices. Owner-operators setting 2027 budgets, fuel surcharge tables or contract rates can use it as the government's baseline and recheck it after EIA's Dec. 8 update.
Sources
- Short-Term Energy OutlookU.S. Energy Information Administration, Nov 10
- U.S. raises forecasts for 2027 gasoline and diesel pricesTransport Topics, Nov 10